Wall Street Lays An Egg

Today's 276 point drop in the Dow was pretty scary and reminiscent of October 29, 1929, especially when the DJIA was down about 450 points very early this morning. In honor of today's drop, here are some words of wisdom from Marketwatch.com. It's really a pretty good analysis of the situation.

Window Dressing or Not; Oil Stocks Up Today

The end of the year is often referred to as "Window Dressing" time among traders. Portfolio managers add beaten-down equities of quality companies to their portfolios. The thinking is that they can say that these companies are in their portfolios when it's time to create a prospectus or talk about quarterly results. If in January they feel the stocks are going nowhere the portfolio managers can always dump them, but if they're recovering then it's time to let them ride to higher prices!

Solar City (SCTY) rocketed 34% to nearly $60 a share Wednesday when Elon Musk, he of Tesla fame, announced he was buying a majority of the solar panel maker. As mentioned previously by this blog, Solar City is owned and founded by two of Musk's cousins. Our target remains $90. It may be ambitious to think we'll see that in 2016, but for now we'll stand by that number. SCTY is trading around $52.50 today, down 6.4% for the day but up from the hellish depths it reached at $24 around Halloween.

Oil giants Schlumberger (SLB) and Chevron (CVX) are no doubt getting a boost in part from this window dressing phenomenon. The Baker Hughes American and Canadian drilling rig count actually went up by 17 rigs on Friday, the first rise in months. Some investors may feel this is the uptick from the bottom as oil companies have cut as far as they want to (or can) cut. In any event, oil is up slightly about 1% today and SLB is up 2.25% at $69.50 and CVX is 1.27% higher at $90.36 at 10 am.

Btw, U.S. regulators are seeking more concessions in the proposed merger between Baker Hughes and Halliburton.

Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas! Let's all be thankful for this 6-year bull market that has the Dow over 17,000. May the New Year 2016 bring more of the same for the Bulls, or as I like to call us, the good boys and girls! As for you naughty Bears, be patient. History tells us inevitably your time will come.

Big Snap Back In Oil After Cratering

Oil markets continue their volatility, as the price of oil tested lows of $36.64 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as it was down $1 this morning. The price has snapped back, however, and has even traded in positive territory for about an hour.

The oil majors are up off their lows, but are still being crushed for a second day. Chevron is down 88 cents and Exxon Mobil is down $1.65 in the midday trading.

Oil services manufacturer Schlumberger is down about a dollar on the day.

We're looking for oil to continue cratering, expecting it to test $30 a barrel for WTI in the coming weeks. What all this means is, it's time to hop in the car and visit grandma, Aunt Edna or whoever! Enjoy the ride, the gas is cheap!

Disney (DIS) is up $10 since our post in September, now trading around $113.  We're looking for it to hit $125 by the spring.

Oil Majors Down Today, But Up For Week

It was another down day for Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Schlumberger, but overall an up week for the oil-related companies.

Next week is a holiday week, with no trading on Thursday, so have some turkey and enjoy yourself. After all, as my cousin Tom says, "Lots of eating, football and wine. Yes, please!"

Cramer Endorses Slobby (SLB)

Jim Cramer said it is probably a good time to buy oil services equipment provider Schlumberger (SLB), or "Slobby" as it is known on the trading floor because of its symbol, SLB. He thinks a low may have been put in around the 70 mark.

Anyone a fan of Ric Edelman? I am. Really enjoy his radio show. He seems to be the most logical financial adviser out there. He's pretty funny, too, so it keeps it entertaining and not dry and stuffy, as financial shows can sometimes be. Here's a link to his latest radio show, in which he reveals "The Key to Building Wealth." 

Is Sears Going Full Press in Online Sales?

Sears Holdings recently hired a number of e-commerce execs in an apparent attempt to boost its online sales. Check out this article from Inside Investor.

Heat From The Sun -- What's Not To Like?

I like this article on why the market for Solar Panels is heating up, from MarketWatch's Myra P. Saefong September 4th. SCTY, SolarCity, is in the Galway Fund as of Monday. Wall Street analysts are looking for price targets from $66 to nearly $100 a share. It's trading this afternoon relatively unchanged around $49.

Stocks to watch:

ENERGY
Schlumberger (SLB), the oil services equipment provider, and Chevron (CVX).

SLB is trading at 76.20, + 3.5% today; our 6-month target is 85 by March, 2016
CVX is trading at 78.10, + 2% today; target is 90 by March, 2016
SCTY is trading flat around $49 today; target is 90 by March, 2016

MEDIA
Disney (DIS) should benefit when the latest Star Wars sequel is released in December.

DIS is trading flat around $103.50; our target is 125 by March, 2016

TECHNOLOGY
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is rumored to be working on a TV streaming service that will cost $40 a month. If that comes to fruition -- as J.P. Morgan said it will -- then Apple should rise nicely.

AAPL is slightly off at $116, - 0.4% today; our 6-month target is 130 by March, 2016


Disclaimer: As always this blog is my opinion only. All quotes are courtesy of Marketwatch.com, a Dow Jones Company. We do not give tax or investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. You should always seek the assistance of a professional for tax and investment advice. 

Interest Rates Will Rise Again, But When?

Seems the stock market is waiting forever for the Fed to raise interest rates. This uncertainty is leading investors to take a "risk off" approach, and thus we have the 10% correction we've lived through the past few months.

Thomas H. Kee Jr. speculated on Marketwatch today that if Fed Chair Janet Yellen raises rates, it could lead to a market crash, because the Fed's curtailing of its economic stimulus plan has amounted to a tightening monetary policy, and any further tightening (by raising interest rates) would be a problem. Especially for those owning stocks.

I tend to think the market has priced in a rise in interest rates, and the market may rise when it finally happens, assuming the Fed is transparent about being willing to loosen monetary policy in the future if the economy starts to stumble. According to most metrics -- employment, corporate earnings -- the American economy is booming, and I continue to see it doing so.

Stocks to watch:

Schlumberger (SLB), the oil services equipment provider, and Chevron (CVX) may recover if Saudi Arabia succumbs to pressure from less well-heeled members of OPEC and is forced to stop flooding the market with oil.

SLB is trading at 72.69; our 6-month target is 85 by March, 2016
CVX is trading at 75.78; target is 90 by March, 2016

Disney (DIS) should benefit when the latest Star Wars sequel is released in December.

DIS is trading at 103.75; our target is 125 by March, 2016

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is rumored to be working on a TV streaming service that will cost $40 a month. If that comes true -- as J.P. Morgan said it will in a note today -- then apple should rise nicely.

AAPL is trading at 115.33; our 6-month target is 130 by March, 2016


Disclaimer: As always this blog is my opinion only. We do not give tax or investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. You should always seek the assistance of a professional for tax and investment advice. 

Where's That Correction?

Dow up 200+ points today. Everyone's nervous about a pullback. We got a scare last week. Now, will we dip a bit tomorrow and finish strong Thursday and Friday? Who knows. Consumer and Producer Prices are on the docket. Perhaps investors will be spooked when high gas prices skew the results. Then again, there's a chance that's already priced in, and the sky is the limit. Here we go? CVX hitting new all-time high today. Coke trading ex-dividend and over $70. Wal-Mart back over $60. Disney sloughing off mediocre sales of its new blockbuster, "John Carter." Hold onto your hats!

Commodities still rising

After OPEC's failure to meet a consensus on raising output this week, it looks like oil prices will continue to rise. We think this means continued growth for Chevron. It's been a tough couple of months but the stock closed at $101.23 today after bottoming out in the $98-99 range. Credit Suisse, S&P and others have a target of $118 to 120; I think CVX will reach that by August.

Looking for Coke to rise above $70 by August. It's trading around $65 right now.

Summer's here; the next 3 months are looking up!

S&P Outlook Downgrade Degrades Stocks

The stock market took it on the chin today, after Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit rating outlook of the U.S. Meanwhile the CBOE's VIX volatility rating has been very low, indicating investors have become complacent and are ignoring bad news. That's not necessarily a good thing for the stock market. This kind of attitude usually appears toward market tops. I'm looking for some better earnings this week and next to propel the market and keep the bull going for another few months. Hopefully, that will happen.

Pre-Easter Week, Will Earnings Earn Us Cash?

The markets are closed Friday, so there will be 4 days of trading, and what will the week hold? The watchword is "Earnings!" What will they do to the markets? Chevron's earnings will be announced the week after Easter; we're looking for a gradual rise and then a pop to the upside. Also an increase in dividends to $3.20 a year, 80 cents a quarter. It's the least they can do for their shareholders; they're making so much money.

Weather is getting better here in Chicago; almost time to plant the garden. Hopefully everything will rise in the spring!

Let the Geyser Blow!

Okay, the oil stocks have had a couple of rough weeks, but now it's time to start the spike. Chevron is around $105, down from $110. Up over a buck today, we expect CVX to surge when earnings are reported near the end of the month. We may be wrong, but would you bet against $105+ oil?

Coke continues to impress, but we're excited about Wal-Mart. Looking for WMT to push the $60 mark this summer, which would be an all-time high.

Anecdotal evidence seems to support a strong recovery. Are you experiencing the same thing? Have you tried to book a brunch for Easter? The restaurants are all full! My Serbian neighbor's mother is a maid at the local Hyatt hotel here in the Northwest suburbs of Chicago, it's fully booked through the month of April! All right, maybe that just proves the rich are doing okay in this economy, but I don't know -- I think things are looking up all around. And is anybody you know decreasing their spending because of the price of gas? Do you know any of these people who are supposedly going into hunker-down mode? Me neither! That's why I'm so bullish on Wal-Mart.

Okay, Happy Investing. Remember, the best things in life are free, but the next best things cost a lot of money!

Exxon, Chevron: The cure for your gas pump blues

If you're like me, you don't like paying north of $3 bucks a gallon for gas. What's a driver to do? Buy energy company stocks, like Exxon or Chevron! Both pay a decent dividend, and Exxon reported big earnings today, as did Chevron Friday. Exxon was up $1.69 to $80.68 today, and Chevron was up $1.56 to $94.93 after a bit of profit-taking Friday. They were the #2 & 4 rising stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average today (Alcoa and IBM were #1 & 3, respectively).

When you curse the extra $5 bucks it takes to fill your tank, just think of the $72 dividend Chevron is going to give you in a couple of months, and all your troubles will go away....

Now, it's time for me to enjoy the cure for sitting at the computer all day; I'm getting a massage. Ciao!

State of the Union...Up, Up, Up

Walmart climbed $1.23 today to $57.26, close to our target of $58. Maybe this strength is in response to the rise of the dollar today. Also getting some good press from Michelle Obama's initiatives on healthy eating.

Chevron holding steady at $94.08. Gotta think it's ready for some "back-filling", a good opportunity to buy some more. Heck, if I'm gonna pay $3.50 a gallon at the pump, I'm gonna want Chevron to at least lay some of that $72 dollars-a-quarter dividend on me.

Coke steady at $62.96 after a minor correction. Positioned well for any "flight to quality" buying should the market correct.

Looking for a correction in February/March...have your puts in place.

Now it's time to listen to the President...the state of the union is indeed strong....huah! huah!

Hu's in Town? Let's Go to Walmart!

Chinese President Hu Jintao came to Chicago today & met Mayor Daley. Maybe Da Mayor tried some Mandarin on him; God knows the President wouldn't have been able to understand any English coming from Daley.

Speaking of China, how bout dat Walmart! Was up over a buck today for a while. We're long, looking at a target of $58; it closed at penny shy of $56 today.

Chevron and Coke are experiencing some profit-taking. We're looking for them to rise into the inevitable February/March correction.

I mean, come on, does anyone expect this Bull rally to last much longer? I give it 2 to 4 weeks, then, have your puts in place for a hedge.

Liking IShares MSCI Singapore Index (EWS) as a way to get into the Asian market. It's at $13.71 today. Down 16 cents, but the future is bright.

We think gold still has a way to go before it corrects.

Bracing for a sub-zero night here in Chicago.....Go Bears!

You can take my Happy Meal, but Don't Touch my Coke!

San Francisco succeeded in stifling the Happy Meal last week. Will the Nutrition Police curtail Coke and sugary beverages as well? Who knows. For now, Coke is trading at all time highs. Writing covered calls as a hedge doesn't seem doable, since it seems to fade down a few points and then skyrocket again. Up 20% this year...it'll retrace, but for now enjoy the gain.

Chevron still riding the oil boom, up above 84.

Wal-Mart is steady but pretty stagnant. A safe investment, with a decent dividend.

AVII not doing much.

EWS, iShares Singapore, looking good. Up 5% over the last month.

Looking at Iron Mountain. Hasn't done much but there is a real need out there for secure data storage. IRM closed at $22.82 today.

Looking forward to the trip to San Diego Thursday for Kathryn's wedding. Staying at Torrey Pines. Fore!

GE Light Burning Bright

GE broke to the upside last week. It's now trading near $17 a share. GE will release its 3rd quarter earnings Friday. Coca-Cola continues to climb, flirting with the $60 mark. Chevron (CVX) rising as well; it closed at $83.71 today. Walmart (WMT) is holding its own at $54.61. Could the world's biggest retailer challenge its 2010 high of $56.27?

AVI Biopharma has been disappointing; AVII is at $1.85 and going nowhere. I guess there's a reason it's trading below $2 a share. May be time to trade it in for a steady, dividend generating stock like, Hawkins (Chemicals) HWKN (1.56% dividend, stock price $38.48) or Calumet Specialty Products Partnership (CLMT), a pipeline concern (8.86% dividend, stock price $20.34).

Stocks are expected to move after tomorrow's release of the minutes to the Fed's September monetary policy meeting.

Earnings Up, Govt. Data Down, The Roller Coaster Continues

Today actually ended on a positive note, thanks to Chicago Manufacturing Data which saved the day after a disappointing 2.4% rise in GDP for the second quarter (expectations were for a 2.5 to 3% rise). The S&P 500 ended up .01%. Okay, it's only a fraction, but in this market we'll take any good news we can get.

Chevron did not disappoint. Earnings tripled & both sales and earnings smashed through expectations. The stock wallowed in the general market malaise during the day but finally managed a 19¢ gain to $76.21 by day's end.

Gold rebounded after all the dour economic news, but we're hoping this is just a bump in the road for DZZ, the Deutsche Bank Power Shares Gold Double Short ETN. Stay the course.

A good weekend to all! Go out and enjoy life!

KISS YOUR GOLD GOODBYE!

Today gold took a tumble, falling to $1,162/oz. Our favorite DZZ shares soared, closing up 37¢ to $12.15. We've made a nice profit, buying in at the height of the yellow metal's euphoria, when DZZ was at $10.60. Now the quandry: hold on for a year for the long-term capital gains, or get out while the getting's good. Market Edge Second Opinion® just upgraded the ETF to a buy, so we'll hold on for a while. It's gonna be a crazy ride!

IS THERE LIFE IN CURIS?

We took a big hit a couple of weeks ago when this biotech had some disappointing trial results, but we like its partnership with Genentech and we're holding on. May even add some shares at these reduced prices. It closed down 6¢ at $1.74 today.

COKE IS IT!

Despite Charles Schwab's D rating, we like Coke and its just released strong earnings proved us right. It gained another 11¢ today to $55.05. Ned Davis, S&P, Argus & Market Edge all give it their highest rating.

GE BRINGING GOOD SHARES TO LIFE!

GE just upped its dividend 20% and the stock has bounced to $16.18. What's not to like? Ride this one all the way up to $18 and watch the profits roll in.

Well, it's time to enjoy some Shiraz and watch the sun set on this beautiful summer day. Happy investing to all!

LPM